Cooper Flagg’s decision to return to Duke instead of entering the NBA Draft is a highly consequential one. While it may be seen as a choice that benefits his development and education, there are significant financial implications for his future career. Based on estimated cap numbers and the structure of the NBA’s salary system, Flagg could potentially lose between $75 million to $125 million in potential salary on the backend of his NBA career by delaying the start of his service clock. This decision, though focused on his personal growth, could ultimately have a long-term impact on his earnings and professional trajectory.
### Understanding the NBA Salary Structure
Before diving into the specifics of Cooper Flagg’s potential financial loss, it’s crucial to understand the NBA salary structure. The NBA operates under a salary cap system, which dictates the maximum amount teams can spend on player salaries in any given season. The salary cap is determined based on a percentage of the league’s basketball-related income (BRI), and it increases each year in accordance with the league’s financial growth. As a result, the financial landscape of the NBA is constantly changing.
A player’s earnings are also shaped by their experience in the league, which is tracked by a service clock. This service clock is tied to the number of seasons a player spends in the NBA. Players with fewer than three years of service time are considered rookies or second-year players, and they are eligible for rookie-scale contracts. After completing three seasons, players are eligible for more lucrative contracts, which could include maximum salary deals depending on their performance and the league’s cap space.
The length of a player’s service clock is important because it influences their contract eligibility, earnings potential, and ability to negotiate for larger deals. A player who enters the NBA draft directly out of high school or college will start their service clock immediately, and this timeline will influence the duration and value of their career contracts.
### The Impact of Delaying Service Time
If Cooper Flagg decides to return to Duke and delay entering the NBA Draft for another year or two, he will effectively push back the start of his NBA service clock. This delay has significant ramifications for his future salary potential, particularly for the backend of his career when players typically sign their second and third professional contracts.
#### The Rookie Contract
Every player entering the NBA through the draft is subject to a rookie-scale contract. The value of this contract is predetermined based on the player’s draft position and the NBA’s salary cap for the year. Rookie contracts typically span four years, with the first two years being guaranteed and the final two years offering team options. Players are eligible to sign for more lucrative contracts once they’ve completed their rookie deal.
In the case of a player like Cooper Flagg, who is considered one of the top prospects in the 2025 NBA Draft class, he could expect to sign a contract worth upwards of $10 million for his first season (based on the NBA’s 2025 salary cap projections). While this might seem like a significant amount of money, it’s important to remember that the rookie contract is a limited opportunity, especially for players who are projected to make an immediate impact in the league.
#### Second Contract (Restricted Free Agency)
Once a player has completed their rookie contract, they are eligible for a second contract, often referred to as their “second-year deal.” This is where the potential for significant earnings begins to take shape. A player can either sign a new contract with their current team or enter restricted free agency, allowing other teams to bid for their services while the player’s original team has the right to match any offer.
The second contract is typically where a player starts earning much more than during their rookie deal, especially if they’ve performed well and proven themselves as a star. These contracts can range from $10 million to $30 million annually, depending on the player’s performance, the market demand, and the salary cap. For high-potential players like Flagg, the second contract often represents the beginning of a major earning phase in their career.
#### Third Contract (Unrestricted Free Agency)
After a player has completed their rookie and second contracts, they reach unrestricted free agency. At this point, a player has the ability to negotiate with any team without restrictions. The salary for a third contract can vary widely, but it often represents the peak of a player’s earning potential. Superstars who perform at the highest levels can sign contracts worth upwards of $40 million to $50 million annually, while solid role players may still command deals worth $20 million to $30 million annually.
For players who enter free agency before the age of 30, these contracts can be especially lucrative, as teams are looking to lock in long-term commitments with players who are in the prime of their careers. This third contract is a key financial milestone for players, as it can significantly shape their financial future.
#### The Effect of Delaying the Start of the Service Clock
Now that we understand the structure of the NBA salary system, let’s look at how Cooper Flagg’s decision to delay his entry into the NBA Draft could affect his potential earnings. By returning to Duke for another year (or even two), Flagg would be delaying the start of his service clock, pushing back his ability to sign a second contract by a year or two.
In the short term, this may not seem like a major issue. Flagg will have the opportunity to further develop his game, improve his skills, and potentially increase his draft stock. However, the long-term consequences are more significant.
If Flagg enters the NBA one or two years later, his rookie contract will not start until those additional years are accounted for. This means that, assuming Flagg is drafted into a similar position as he would be if he declared for the draft immediately, he will not reach his second contract until he is at least 23 or 24 years old instead of 21 or 22. This delay could cost him millions of dollars in potential salary.
#### The Long-Term Financial Impact
The financial impact of delaying the start of his service clock can be substantial. Let’s break down the potential losses:
– **Lost Earnings on Rookie Contract:** Flagg’s rookie contract would be delayed by one or two years. Since rookie contracts are capped based on the salary cap, a delay in entering the NBA would mean a smaller portion of Flagg’s career would be spent on a relatively modest salary. The total loss from his rookie deal could be anywhere from $5 million to $10 million, depending on his draft position and the specific terms of the contract.
– **Delayed Second Contract Earnings:** More importantly, delaying Flagg’s entry into the NBA means that his second contract, which is where he could begin to earn the big money, would be pushed back. As a result, his second contract could start at a lower number, potentially missing out on the lucrative opportunities available to younger players who enter the NBA earlier. Over the course of this second deal, Flagg could lose anywhere from $20 million to $50 million in potential earnings, depending on his performance and the terms of his contract.
– **Third Contract Opportunities:** If Flagg delays his entry into the league, he could also miss out on the potential for an earlier third contract. Players who enter the NBA earlier have the opportunity to secure a third deal while they are still in the prime of their careers, potentially earning more money and extending their playing days. Flagg’s delayed entry could result in him losing $50 million to $70 million in earnings over the course of his career.
In total, by delaying his NBA entry for one or two years, Cooper Flagg could lose anywhere from $75 million to $125 million in potential salary over the course of his career. These numbers are based on projections of salary cap growth and typical contract negotiations for players of his caliber. However, the true impact will depend on a variety of factors, including Flagg’s performance in college, his draft stock, the financial state of the NBA, and the timing of his free agency.
### Conclusion
Cooper Flagg’s decision to return to Duke may be a wise one in terms of personal development, education, and preparation for an eventual NBA career. However, it comes with significant financial consequences. By delaying the start of his service clock and pushing back his rookie contract, Flagg could lose out on a considerable amount of money over the course of his career. The potential loss of $75 million to $125 million in salary is a substantial price to pay for further college experience, and it’s a decision that Flagg, his family, and his advisors will need to weigh carefully. Ultimately, while money is an important factor, the long-term development of a young player like Flagg may ultimately be the most crucial consideration in his career decision-making process.
