The NBA’s financial landscape shifts on a regular basis as franchise values rise, income enters the league, and the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) alters how that money may be accessible. As the NBA grows, elite players will have a larger slice of the pie from which to draw their pay.
This indicates that top-tier athletes’ earnings will continue to skyrocket. Jaylen Brown received the largest contract in league history, not because he is better than any other player (or even right now), but because he entered free agency at the proper time.
Scottie Barnes will be due for an extension.
The Toronto Raptors will have to deal with the new financial landscape as early as this summer, when All-Star forward Scottie Barnes will be able to negotiate and sign an extension to his rookie contract. DeMar DeRozan signed a three-year, $28.5 million contract just a decade ago, followed by a five-year, $139 million deal later in his peak.
Oh how the times have changed.
The Raptors last negotiated a deal with a breakout player when Pascal Siakam inked a four-year, $136 million extension in October 2019. Siakam hadn’t yet made an All-Star team (he would in his fourth season), but he had started and played an important role in the Raptors’ 2019 championship win.
Barnes’ financial situation will be very different five years from now. He joins Cade Cunningham and Franz Wagner as athletes who have already achieved stardom and will seek salaries around the top of the possible range. How high could such salaries go?
Part of determining that will rely on how high the salary ceiling rises. If they sign a contract this offseason, it will begin in the 2025-26 season, thus the cap raises not only this summer but the following one will determine the beginning point.
How much can Scottie Barnes earn?
Cap analyst Eric Pincus examined the 2021 NBA Draft class to anticipate the deal each player would sign. He also created various categories for rookie contract extensions, with “supermax potential” being the most expensive, followed by “near-max”, large, mid-tier, and tiny.
Where would Scottie Barnes land? Pincus correctly forecasts that he will fall into the maximum contract category, which means he may sign a deal worth up to 25% of the salary cap. Barnes’ salary cap in 2025-26 is expected to be approximately $155 million, therefore he would earn $38.75 million in the first year of his contract.
There is more to the story, though. According to Pincus, Barnes has performed well enough to negotiate a designated rookie extension, which is more than just a max deal. It also includes language known as the “Rose Rule,” as Derrick Rose was the driving force behind incorporating this clause into the CBA.
In summary, if a player signs a designated rookie extension, their contract value is not limited to the regular 25% maximum; they can increase it to 30% if they meet certain milestones in their fourth season, such as winning MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, or making the All-NBA Team.
Only the best two of players in each draft class can negotiate this into their deal, but Pincus believes Barnes fits that bill. Anyone who has seen Barnes carry the Raptors at times this season would certainly agree. His offensive skill has improved alongside his defensive ability, putting him on the path to perpetual brilliance.
How much can Barnes earn on a designated rookie extension? If he negotiates the maximum amount into the extension and makes an All-NBA Team next season (he would have been a realistic Third Team candidate this season if he had been healthy enough to play 65 games), he will earn a full 30% of the projected $155 million salary cap in year one, with a maximum 8% raise in each consecutive season.
That translates to a beginning salary of $46.5 million and a total contract value of about $268 million over five seasons, give or take a few million depending on the actual cap numbers. The price tag on such a deal is astonishing, but it is no bigger a percentage of the cap than previous young stars in the last decade; it is simply a larger pie to slice from.
Is Barnes likely to get such a hefty contract? Players his age who have attended an All-Star Game prior to signing their rookie extension are almost guaranteed to sign a designated rookie deal; the rule is designed specifically for that type of player.
Then it’s up to Barnes to make the All-NBA team next season and earn the rise. If not, he will earn almost $225 million over five seasons. That is still a big salary, but it will cost the Raptors $43 million or less to assemble a team around Barnes.
Expect Barnes and the Raptors to announce an extension during the first 48 hours of free agency this summer, and then wait to see if Barnes can meet the threshold next season and qualify for the largest truck of money imaginable.
