The Edmonton Oilers have already missed out on major deadline day trades like as Elias Lindholm, Sean Monahan, and Chris Tanev.
Last year at this time, many people were urging Edmonton to make a big move, such as trading Evan Bouchard for San Jose’s Erik Karlsson or going all in to sign Arizona’s Jakob Chyrchun.
Both Karlsson and Chychrun were eventually traded, but neither has led their new teams to success this season, not even a playoff spot. Meanwhile, Bouchard has elevated his game to all-star status in Edmonton.
Let that serve as a warning tale about pushing heaven and earth to attract a big name athlete.
Instead of the highly regarded Karlsson, Oilers general manager Ken Holland brought in a lesser-known Nashville player, Mattias Ekholm. Ekholm has become one of the NHL’s greatest two-way defensemen since his acquisition.
Consider Edmonton’s acquisition strategy to be the “One-Foot Hurdle” approach, established in 1989 by one of the world’s top investors, Warren Buffet.
Buffet stated: “After 25 years of owning and supervising a wide range of enterprises, (business partner) Charlie (Munger) and I have not mastered how to manage challenging business challenges. What we’ve learned is to avoid them. To the extent that we have been successful, it is because we focused on identifying one-foot hurdles that we could overcome rather than developing the ability to clear seven-footers.
Erik Karlsson was a seven-foot hurdle. Holland was sensible enough not to strive to outperform himself in terms of leaping ability, instead opting for a big attribute that was lot less attractive, had a much lower reputation, and was not as well-known. However, Ekholm only cost Bouchard two low first-round draft picks. Holland was able to pass one hurdle with the Ekholm deal, and it allowed him to overcome another by having some assets and cap room to trade for Nick Bjugstad.
This trade deadline appears to present a succession of one-foot barriers for Holland to overcome, and he’s in luck with one big need, as there is a plethora of strong wingers on the market right now.
Bob Stauffer of the Oilers radio network, who travels with and works for the team, has revealed Holland’s shopping list, which includes a top six right winger, a third or fourth line right shot center, and a depth defenseman who will be seventh on the depth chart.
“I see Edmonton adding a top nine forward, probably a second line guy who can play right wing, if not a 3C, a third line centre, and then I still think they’re going to add another centre, maybe another right shot,” Stauffer stated at the time.
On defense, Stauffer stated that he was “pragmatic” and did not want Edmonton to give up a first-round draft pick unless they received a player with term. “I wonder whether or not it’s just going to be a depth d.”
He went on to say: “There is a way they can make those additions, maybe a top 6 right wing with an expiring contract, a fourth line right shot centre and a depth defenceman without moving anybody else out of the forward unit and that would give them a lot deeper forward unit and a depth defenceman that can come in as a seven.”
My take: 1. This year’s market leader is Jake Guentzel of Pittsburgh. He’s the big name player, the Stanley Cup winner, the winger who rides with Sidney Crosby and averages a point per game. It appears that Edmonton just does not have the cap space or assets to sign Guentzel. Edmonton might be able to afford the player if it traded away top prospect Philip Broberg and a first-round selection for another team to eat up cap space. It’s enticing to think of such an acquisition, just as many of us, including myself, were intrigued by the prospect of Karlsson wearing an Oilers uniform.
2. Fortunately, there are plenty of alternative options for that Top 6 winger berth. They will cost less than Guentzel.
Guentzel makes the most sense in a market where there is enough salary room to sign him for the following season and beyond. That market is not Edmonton. But Edmonton might trade an asset or two to bring in a guy with a less-than-monster reputation right now, such as Jordan Eberle of Seattle, Vlad Tarasenko of Ottawa, Tyler Toffoli of New Jersey, or even Sonny Milano of Columbus.
How about Sonny Milano? At even strength, Milano has averaged 2.09 points per 60 minutes over the last two seasons. Guentzel scores 2.12 points per 60.
Pavel Buchnevich, another seven-foot hurdler, averages 2.24 per 60, Eberle 2.08, Tarasenko 2.1, Toffoli 2.17, Adam Henrique 1.89, Anthony Mantha 1.87, Ryan Hartman 1.94, and Jason Zucker 1.85.
By comparison, Warren Foegele, who some locals are considering as a player who may have recently moved out of Edmonton, is at 2.21 per 60. Why would the Oilers release Foegele right now?
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is at 2.06 per 60, Evander Kane at 1.81, and Ryan McLeod at 1.75.
Over the last two seasons, there have been a lot of forwards available in the 1.8 to 2.3 points per 60 area, and a few of them are one-foot obstacles.
Instead of betting all your money on Guentzel or Buchnevich, why not try that?
2. Keep in mind that even strength scoring is important when rating and ranking these guys because none of the newcomers are likely to make it onto Edmonton’s top power play. They’ll have to acquire their cookies and apples at equal strength. No feasting on power plays.
